Review:
This year looks by producing a bumper crop of global change
texts - everything from beginners' guides to more applied material
in policy-making, a few of which have ended up reviewed here.
This text was never going to be one to miss partly because of
its perspective and partly because of the currency of its view.
The
genesis for the book was a meeting at the Hadley
Centre in 2005. The aim was to gather a consensus view about
the most likely course for climate change. Such meetings are
quite common; one could argue the IPCC
itself is focussed on that one outcome. The difference here
is that the question is not one of change but to what extent
are we going to reach a pre-determined level. In this way, the
focus becomes not the notion of change but the way in which
we need to respond to a specific level. For the purposes of
this meeting it has been assumed that we want to avoid a "dangerous"
situation. This immediately assumes we have two goals - to define
"dangerous" and to show what we need to do to avoid/mitigate
such an eventuality. In answering these points this book gathers
a large range of contributions all aimed at providing an overview
of their research or findings. Organised into seven sections
the book starts with the fundamental question of just what dangerous
means and how do we recognise it as/when it arrives. The first
two chapters look at the notion of dangerous and the remainder
focus on some commonly agreed 'signals' which are thought to
herald significant warming. The examples chosen range from the
Antarctic ice sheet to Greenland and ocean circulation. Section
two continues the basic theme by reviewing the literature to
see what consensus exists (in this regard, chapter 11 stands
out with a large table detailing numerous global warming studies
and their basic conclusions). From this point, the focus of
sections shifts to more specific items. thus section three looks
at biodiversity and the changes wrought by shifting climate
patterns. Alongside more usual topics in biodiversity loss there's
also a welcome inclusion about the land carbon cycle which is
becoming one of the current hot areas for research. Section
four tackles a mixed bag of examples centering on anthropogenic
changes. Five cases illustrate this range from water supply
and sea-level changes to notions of "dangerous" anthropogenic
changes. Next we move to regional assessments with two Arctic
assessments and one from each of Africa, Asia and the US (and
a local one for the reviewer from Australia!). Section six tackles
the question of pollution pathways. This is a critical area
because it examines the basic flows that dominate all other
thinking: if these are wrong then all our models are faulty.
Contributions here range from statistics and feedback mechanisms
to methodological issues. A final section reviews the technological
options we have and the economic and philosophical issues we
might need to face.
This
is one text that has lived up to its reputation. It provides
what few others do: a very detailed critique with crucial data
in a limited space (few of the chapters are more than 20 pages
and most are 5-10). The upside is a key text summarising the
current state of generally-accepted knowledge. The downside
is that the densely packed pages are not really aimed at beginners.
That aside this must rate as one of the best texts this year
on the subject: a definite addition to higher education libraries
and an invaluable tool for teachers who really want to answer
key questions with authority.