Review:
It is accepted that models are crucial to our understanding
of complex environmental phenomena. Despite this, there are
few general texts to help develop a sense of models and a critical
awareness of how they work and the limitations they bring to
our discussions. With global warming being reliant on models
and the need for people to be better informed about model parameters
it is important that this area be addressed. This year there
have been a number of model and maths-based texts published
which bodes well for understanding but the information still
needs to get out to students. This
text is aimed at post-graduate students and those following
work in conservation. However, as with many books aimed at higher
levels of study there is much we can learn and use in our work.
Essentially, this is a computer modeling text using a version
of Basic known as True Basic
to produce a range of models which can be used to understand
wildlife dynamics. Although it is possible to buy a copy, this
book comes with a CD containing a limited version of True Basic
and the programs mentioned in the text already coded (the system
just needs installing).
We
start the book with a review of the modeling process and an
overview of the text layout and contents. Chapter two poses
a question of conservation management - how do you manage a
dodo? Although obviously a fake question the discussion generated
and the questions posed form a useful commentary on the idea
of modeling. The aim is to construct a simple model to address
key conservation requirements e.g. population numbers. Chapter
three describes the range of equations that can be used to start
modeling. From the basic dynamic equation to non-linear dynamics,
the ideas of model complexity are outlined. Along with a set
of examples on the CD, the reader is given the chance to explore
some simple models to see what the effects of altering variables
would be. From this point, the book describes a range of models
each one covering a different aspect of wildlife conservation.
The first one deals with population exploring age and stage
structured examples. Chapter five increases complexity to look
at predator-prey and similar situations. This leads on to simulation
modeling where models are tested against data. This is a key
step whose importance cannot be under-stated because if the
model is not sound then all data will be liable to misinterpretation.
One of the problems with wildlife is that often a species is
being harvested at the same time people are trying to assess
the viability of this. The earlier models such as maximum sustainable
yield are being refined as shown in chapter 7 to improve data
analysis - important for areas such as fisheries management.
Chapter 8 takes this one stage further to examine risk analysis
for population numbers. Next, we add the idea of having a number
of populations. The aim is to reduce risk to wildlife but we
need to see if this is in an effective option. Disease is a
key issue in wildlife management but the dynamics of disease
can also tell us about population spread and so chapter 10 discusses
how we can model such behaviour. The next model deals with scenario
building, an description of how we can test ideas without altering
wild populations. The next three chapters all describe situations
with vegetation either from the view of patches and gaps or
through suitability of areas for animal management. A final
chapter brings together the idea of testing models against data
before using them further. There are several appendices which
describe parts of the computer models.
This
is a very interesting text although one for the specialist.
It does require some understanding of mathematics although much
could be gained with only limited knowledge. The focus on method
and theory as well as programming means that the text encourages
the reader to question even basic assumptions (hopefully making
a better model in the process). Each chapter has a range of
cases and examples and the appendices (and CD) make this a very
useful package.